Forecasting manager

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About the role

Job Purpose Summary This is a commercial forecasting role within Demand & Supply Strategy, supporting robust commercial and financial decision-making by providing reliable commercial demand and financial forecasts for innovative medicines and vaccines. Working closely with Marketing, Finance, Medical, Market Access and Business/Commercial Excellence, the role translates market dynamics, patient demand, product performance, market access considerations and business assumptions into clear forecasts, scenarios and insights that support planning cycles from pre-launch preparation through launch, in-market performance management and long-range planning. The position requires strong analytical capability, sound forecasting judgement, effective stakeholder communication and the ability to improve forecast models and methodologies so that forecast assumptions are well understood, appropriately challenged and aligned across key commercial and financial business partners. The role also communicates forecast assumptions to Supply Chain and reviews inventory coverage or supply availability to understand potential risks to commercial plans. This role offers the opportunity to work closely with key commercial and financial stakeholders and directly influence business planning, performance management and business decisions through forecasting and analytics. Key responsibilities Commercial demand and financial forecasting: ・Establish, document and maintain commercial demand and financial forecasts for prioritized medicines and vaccines including pre-launch preparation, launch and in-market products, supporting Monthly forecast, Annual Plan, Long Range Forecast and other relevant business planning cycles. ・Develop sell-in and sell out SKU level forecasts by applying quantitative and analytical techniques and building robust assumptions and scenario plans based on historical performance, market dynamics, patient flow, demand drivers, market access considerations, competitive activity and cross-functional business inputs. ・Lead scenario planning and sensitivity analysis to assess risks, opportunities and business implications related to patient uptake, market share, competitor events, pricing and access changes, demand shifts and other business uncertainties. ・Communicate commercial demand and financial forecast assumptions to Supply Chain and Manufacturing stakeholders as needed, and review inventory coverage or supply availability to understand potential risks to commercial plans. ・Build, validate, enhance and optimize the forecast models, methodologies and tools in collaboration with team members, improving assumption structure, scenario functionality, transparency, reliability, usability and decision value.  Leverage Python and analytics tools to automate and optimize forecasting processes. Performance management: ・Monitor landing estimates, actual performance versus forecast, key sales and demand drivers, forecast accuracy and bias using relevant metrics, and provide clear explanations, business implications and corrective recommendations to improve forecast quality and support commercial and financial decision-making. Commercial stakeholder partnership: ・Partner primarily with Marketing, Finance, Medical, Market Access and Business Excellence to align forecast assumptions, understand business questions and provide forecasting insights that support brand strategy, financial planning, performance reviews and business performance management. Process improvement and capability building: ・Drive continuous improvement, automation and standardization of forecasting processes, templates, tools and governance, and provide coaching, training and knowledge sharing to strengthen forecast model understanding, process adherence and overall forecasti

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